The French Estate Agent

 

Is France Really Falling Apart? Understanding the French Political Steamboat

If YouTube is to be believed, France is permanently about three days away from catastrophe.

France is burning.

France is bankrupt.

France is going far left.

France is going far right.

France is finished.

And naturally, there will usually be a French flag, something on fire and a suitably dramatic face on the thumbnail.

I've become rather fed up with it.

Quite a lot of this stuff is clickbait, and increasingly it seems to come from faceless channels pumping out AI-generated videos about countries the people behind them may not even live in.

Now, I'm certainly not here to fly any particular political flag. France has political problems, just as Britain, America and pretty much everywhere else does.

But French politics doesn't work quite the way some of these videos suggest.

And if you're considering moving to France or buying a property here, I think that's worth understanding.

Prefer to watch rather than read?

I originally explained all of this in my video:

Why France Is NOT Doomed: Politics Explained Simply

https://youtu.be/RCdSp52yDWM

In it, I use my slightly unconventional “French steamboat” theory to explain why French politics isn't quite as straightforward as some of the more dramatic headlines would have you believe.

Or keep reading, because the basic idea is actually quite simple.

America gets a powerboat. Britain gets a riverboat. France gets a steamboat.

If you want a very unscientific comparison of political systems, imagine America as a great big offshore powerboat.

You get in, point it in a direction, throw down the throttle and zoom off until somebody eventually changes direction, you run out of fuel or you hit something.

Britain sometimes feels more like one of those little electric riverboats you hire for an hour.

You chug downriver for half an hour, turn around and spend the next half hour heading back towards where you started.

France is different.

France is a great big old steamboat trying to make its way upriver against the rapids.

The captain may be standing at the wheel, but there are an awful lot of other people on board.

And therein lies the important bit.

First, France chooses its captain

The French President is directly elected using a two-round voting system.

The first round can have candidates from across the political spectrum. If nobody obtains an absolute majority, the two leading candidates go through to a second round.

That second round produces an interesting situation.

A lot of people aren't necessarily voting enthusiastically FOR one candidate.

They're voting AGAINST the other one.

So a President can arrive at the Élysée Palace having won the election while knowing perfectly well that a considerable proportion of the country didn't particularly want them there.

They just wanted the other person even less.

That's quite an important distinction.

Winning the presidency gives you the wheel.

It doesn't give you the entire boat.

Then the captain chooses the cabin crew

The President appoints the Prime Minister and, formally on the Prime Minister's proposal, the other members of the Government.

That's our cabin crew.

Unsurprisingly, the President generally wants people around them who broadly support the political direction in which they want to travel.

So far, so straightforward.

Captain says: “We're going that way.”

Cabin crew says: “Excellent idea, Captain.”

Unfortunately for the captain, there are another 577 people on deck.

Meet the deck crew

France's National Assembly has 577 députés.

And unlike our imaginary cabin crew, they certainly don't all agree with the President.

They are elected separately and can represent parties and political alliances from across the spectrum.

Sometimes the President has a comfortable parliamentary majority.

Sometimes they don't.

And when they don't, things become considerably more interesting.

The President can stand on the bridge shouting:

“FULL STEAM AHEAD!”

Meanwhile, half the deck crew may be shouting:

“ABSOLUTELY NOT!”

And somebody at the back has probably started a demonstration.

Welcome to French politics.

But there's another crew below deck

France also has the Sénat.

The National Assembly and Senate together form the French Parliament, and both are involved in examining and passing legislation.

Proposed laws can travel backwards and forwards between the two chambers, being examined, debated and amended.

There are mechanisms for trying to reach agreement when the two chambers disagree and, for most ordinary legislation, the National Assembly can ultimately be given the final word.

But once again, it means changing France isn't normally a case of somebody winning an election on Sunday and completely transforming the country by Tuesday afternoon.

Our steamboat has a lot of machinery.

And then there's the chief engineer

France also has the Conseil constitutionnel, or Constitutional Council.

One of its important roles is examining legislation referred to it and deciding whether it complies with the French Constitution.

So now we have our captain.

The Government.

577 members of the National Assembly.

The Senate.

And a Constitutional Council keeping an eye on whether the machinery is being operated within the rules.

This is starting to look considerably less like a powerboat.

And what about the famous 49.3?

If you've watched French politics for any length of time, you've probably heard someone mention “49.3”.

Article 49 paragraph 3 of the French Constitution allows the Government, through the Prime Minister, to make the adoption of certain legislation a matter of confidence.

In simple terms, it provides a mechanism for getting a text adopted without the National Assembly voting on it in the normal way.

That sounds enormously powerful.

And it is.

But there's a catch.

Members of the National Assembly can respond with a motion of censure.

If that succeeds, the Government falls and the legislation concerned is rejected.

So 49.3 isn't quite the presidential “do whatever I want” button that it is sometimes portrayed as being.

On our steamboat, I'd describe it more as a large red lever marked:

“FULL STEAM AHEAD. PULLING THIS MAY RESULT IN THE CREW THROWING YOU OVERBOARD.”

Probably best not used casually.

What happens if France suddenly swings to the right?

Or the left?

This is where those dramatic YouTube predictions start becoming considerably less straightforward.

Yes, France can change political direction.

Of course elections matter.

Presidents matter.

Governments matter.

Parliamentary majorities certainly matter.

But electing a President does not automatically hand one political movement unrestricted control of France.

The President may have the wheel, but they still have to operate within the Constitution, deal with Parliament and work within a political system containing numerous competing centres of power.

And if the National Assembly is fragmented between several political groups, making dramatic changes becomes considerably harder.

That's why French politics can be incredibly frustrating for French people themselves.

Things can take forever.

Reforms are proposed.

People object.

The Assembly argues.

The Senate gets involved.

There are amendments.

There are demonstrations.

Someone threatens a motion of censure.

Somebody else threatens a strike.

A tractor appears in Paris.

And eventually something may actually happen.

But France is burning!

Well, sometimes bits of it literally are. We've certainly had our share of forest fires.

Politically, however, demonstrations in France need to be put into their cultural context as well.

The French are rather good at protesting.

It's practically a national hobby.

A demonstration that looks terrifying on a ten-second television clip can be taking place in one part of Paris while twenty kilometres away somebody is sitting outside a café having lunch and wondering what to order for dessert.

That doesn't mean protests aren't important.

It means that seeing pictures of burning bins in Paris doesn't automatically mean France itself is collapsing.

So should politics put you off buying a house in France?

This, for me, is the more useful question.

If you're considering spending €150,000, €300,000 or €1 million on a property in France, should you abandon the idea because somebody on YouTube says France is about to be taken over by the extreme left or extreme right?

I wouldn't make a property decision on that basis.

There ARE political decisions worth watching.

Taxation matters.

Residency rules matter.

Planning legislation matters.

Property law matters.

Inheritance rules matter.

Changes affecting landlords or second-home owners can matter.

Those are concrete things which can affect somebody buying, owning or selling French property.

A dramatic thumbnail saying “FRANCE IS FINISHED!” is rather less useful.

France generally changes slowly

And perhaps that's the biggest point of all.

France isn't politically immune from change.

No democratic country is.

A future President or parliamentary majority could introduce policies that have significant consequences.

But the Fifth Republic contains considerably more machinery than one person sitting in the Élysée Palace deciding what happens next.

The President may be holding the wheel.

But there are hundreds of other people aboard the steamboat.

Some are pulling ropes.

Some are tending the engines.

Some are arguing about which direction they should be travelling.

Some are refusing to shovel any more coal until after lunch.

And there's almost certainly somebody trying to throw the anchor overboard.

Meanwhile, France continues slowly upriver.

So next time YouTube serves you a thumbnail announcing that France is doomed because the left, right, centre or somebody you've never heard of has just won an election, don't panic quite yet.

Look at who controls the National Assembly.

Look at the parliamentary arithmetic.

Look at what is actually being proposed.

And remember the steamboat.

France can change course.

It just takes quite a lot of people to turn the wheel.

If you'd rather hear me explain all of this, complete with the French steamboat, American powerboat and British riverboat, you can watch the original video here:

Why France Is NOT Doomed: Politics Explained Simply

And if, despite discovering that French politics involves a captain, 577 deckhands, an engine crew and the occasional constitutional emergency lever, you're still thinking about buying a property in France, that's the part I can actually help you with.

I'm Dan Newton, The French Estate Agent.

À bientôt.